When To Trust An Expert

Pakistan is full of people who present themselves as experts. The PMDC registered doctor at Shaukat Khanum, the hakim down the street with a faded board, the FBR commissioner sending a notice, the WhatsApp uncle who was once posted in the United States. None of them are automatically right or wrong. The thinking person's job is to know when to trust an expert, and how much.

Three filters that actually work. Filter one is credentials in the matching field. A cardiologist is a strong source on heart disease, weak on tax law. An accountant is a strong source on tax filing, weak on cancer treatment. The hakim down the street may know a lot about herbal remedies but very little about a heart attack in progress. A board posted on a shop is not the same as PMDC registration. Always check whether the credential matches the question.

Filter two is conflicts of interest. A doctor who runs a heart hospital and tells you that you need a stent has a financial reason to recommend a stent. That does not mean the doctor is dishonest; it means a second opinion from a doctor without that conflict is worth taking. The same applies to property dealers telling you the market will rise, telecom CEOs telling you 5G is urgent, and your tuition centre owner telling you the matric paper will be very tough this year.

Filter three is replication. Has the expert's claim been checked by other people doing the same work? In medicine, this is published trials in PubMed. In economics, this is studies that other economists have re-run with the same data. In tax law, this is whether the FBR rule the commissioner is citing actually exists in the Income Tax Ordinance, which you can read on fbr.gov.pk. If a claim cannot be replicated or even located, it is one person's opinion wearing a uniform.

Apply this to a real case. Your father gets a notice from FBR claiming Rs 200,000 in tax owed on undeclared income. A cousin shares a WhatsApp message saying it is a phishing scam and to ignore it. What do you do? You do not panic and you do not ignore. You check the notice's reference number on iris.fbr.gov.pk by logging into your father's account; if it appears there, it is real. You read the actual ordinance section the notice cites. You consider hiring a registered tax lawyer for one consultation, around Rs 5,000 to Rs 10,000, who has filter one and filter three but a small filter-two conflict, since they want your business. Three filters, three viewpoints, one calm decision.

An expert is a person, not an oracle. Even the best are wrong some of the time. Trust them in their field, with their conflict in mind, and with at least one second look. That is not disrespect. That is the respect of treating their work the way they treat their work.