Practical exercise
Write down one belief, update it after asking three elders
A Bayesian update is a fancy name for a simple skill: changing your mind by a small amount when new evidence arrives. You will write one belief about your own life, give it a starting confidence number, talk to three elders, and update the number based on what they say. The number itself is less important than the habit of moving it.
Now try it
Write down one belief, update it after asking three elders
Stretch
Run the same exercise twice a year on the same belief. After three years you will have six data points showing exactly how your thinking matured, which is rarer and more valuable than any certificate.
Goes into your portfolio
The doc belief-update-NN with the belief, starting and ending confidence percentages, three elder summaries, and the trigger that would update the number further.